Energy Access and Economic Efficiency in Pakistan: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach

Abstract

This study investigates the dynamic relationship between energy access, clean fuel adoption, and economic effi-ciency(proxiedbyGDPperunitofenergyuse)inPakistan. Usingtime-seriesdatacoveringtheperiod1975–2024, the study employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds Testing approach with a log-linear specifi-cation. The empirical results confirm a strong long-run cointegration relationship among the variables. The Error Correction Term (ECT) indicates a robust speed of adjustment of approximately 56.9% annually, suggesting that the economy corrects more than half of any disequilibrium within a year. Furthermore, the CUSUM test confirms the structural stability of the model, validating the policy recommendations derived from the high elasticity of electrification