A COMPREHENSIVE FRAMEWORK FOR PREDICTING PROJECT SUCCESS IN DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENTS: INTEGRATING TECHNICAL, BEHAVIORAL, AND ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS

Abstract

Project environments increasingly characterized by volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity (VUCA) present substantial challenges for sustaining project success. Although scholars have examined individual technical, behavioral, and contextual drivers of project outcomes, limited research has integrated these dimensions into a unified predictive framework. This study develops and evaluates a comprehensive model that incorporates technical planning quality, leadership competencies, team dynamics, stakeholder engagement, and environmental turbulence as multidimensional predictors of project success. Using a mixed-methods design and survey data from 362 project professionals across ICT, construction, and service industries, the study tested the proposed framework through structural equation modeling (SEM). Results indicate that technical planning quality and stakeholder engagement exert the strongest direct effects on cost, schedule, and scope performance, while leadership competency and team cohesion influence success indirectly through improved risk management and communication effectiveness. Environmental turbulence demonstrated a significant moderating effect, weakening the relationship between planning quality and schedule performance but strengthening the impact of adaptive leadership on overall success. The integrated model explained 64% of the variance in project success, outperforming single-dimension models commonly cited in the literature. These findings provide empirical support for a more holistic conceptualization of project success and highlight the need for organizations to balance technical rigor with behavioral capabilities and contextual adaptability. The paper concludes with theoretical contributions, practical implications, and recommendations for future research on predictive project analytics.