REPATRIATION OF AFGHAN REFUGEES AND ITS IMPACT ON THE LOCAL LABOR MARKETS OF PAKISTAN

Abstract

This study analyzes the multifaceted impact of Afghan refugee repatriation on Pakistan's local labor markets employing a quantitative secondary data analysis approach. Utilizing time-series data from 2010 to 2025, this study investigates the short- and long-term effects of repatriation on unemployment rates, wages, and sectoral employment dynamics in key provinces, including Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. Employing the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) econometric model, the findings reveal that repatriation causes short-term labor shortages and wage fluctuations, particularly in the informal sector. However, in the long run, it fosters adjustments, such as increased formal employment and local entrepreneurial activity. This paper discusses policy implications, emphasizing gradual repatriation, labor market integration, and protective frameworks for vulnerable workers.